Max Verstappen and his chances to clinch the title in Las Vegas

The Brazilian Grand Prix was crucial in the championship battle of the 2024 Formula 1 season. Max Verstappen, starting from seventeenth position, managed to secure a victory that brings him closer to achieving his fourth consecutive world title. In contrast, Lando Norris, who started from pole position, finished in sixth place, which prevented him from closing the points gap.

With this victory, Verstappen solidifies his position as championship leader, maintaining a 78-point lead over Norris, who faces a considerable challenge to stay in contention. With three Grands Prix and a sprint race remaining, the Las Vegas Grand Prix will be the decisive stage where Verstappen could clinch the title.

Scenarios for Title Win in Las Vegas

• Victory with fastest lap (26 points): If Verstappen wins and gets the fastest lap, Norris must finish in second place or lower for the Dutchman to secure the title.
• Victory without fastest lap (25 points): In this scenario, Norris must finish in third place or lower for Verstappen to secure the championship.
• Second place with fastest lap (19 points): Verstappen could clinch the title if Norris finishes in fifth place or lower.
• Second place without fastest lap (18 points): Norris would need to finish in fifth place or lower.
• Third place with fastest lap (16 points): For Verstappen to secure the title, Norris would need to finish in seventh place or lower.
• Third place without fastest lap (15 points): Verstappen would clinch the title if Norris does not exceed the seventh position.
• Fourth place with fastest lap (13 points): Norris would need to finish in ninth place or lower for Verstappen to win the championship.
• Fourth place without fastest lap (12 points): In this case, Norris would have to finish in tenth position or fail to score points.
• Lowest scoring scenario: If Norris does not score points in Las Vegas, Verstappen would only need a fifth place with the fastest lap (8 points) to secure the championship, regardless of the remaining two races and the sprint race.

Throughout the history of Formula 1, there have been memorable comebacks, though none as challenging as what Norris faces with a 78-point deficit. In 2007, Kimi Räikkönen recovered a 17-point gap in the final two races to win the title, while in 2010, Sebastian Vettel was 31 points behind the leader with six races remaining and went on to win the championship. These examples show that comebacks are possible, but the current gap presents a significant challenge for Norris.

The Las Vegas Grand Prix, which returned to the Formula 1 calendar in 2023, is a recent addition that introduces uncertainty. The unfamiliarity of the track could impact Red Bull's and McLaren's strategies. While Red Bull has shown consistency throughout the season, McLaren has made significant strides, allowing Norris to remain Verstappen's closest challenger.

For Norris and McLaren, options are limited but not absent. Their only chance lies in capitalizing on any mistakes by Verstappen, something that has been rare this season. The pressure is on the British driver, who needs a strong performance to take the title fight to the final two races.