Cook Out Southern 500 Preview: Drivers on the Bubble and What's at Stake at Darlington

September 1 marks a crucial date for NASCAR Cup Series drivers. At the historic Darlington Raceway, the Cook Out Southern 500 will take place, the final race of the 2024 regular season, and the last chance for drivers to secure their spot in the playoffs.

The Challenge at Darlington

Darlington Raceway is a 1.366-mile oval known for its egg shape and nickname, 'The Lady in Black.' With a history dating back to 1950, this circuit is one of the oldest and most challenging on the calendar, where drivers' skill is crucial to avoid the walls and maintain control. This race is considered one of the most prestigious events on the calendar, attracting the attention of fans and competitors alike.

The Playoff Battle

The NASCAR Cup Series playoff bubble drivers are those who are near the cutoff to qualify for the group of 16 drivers who will compete in the postseason. With only one race remaining in the regular season at Darlington Raceway, these drivers face a critical situation where every point counts. Below is an analysis of the performance and chances of the drivers on the bubble:

Bubble Drivers:

Martin Truex Jr. (#14 in standings)

• Points: 695
• Wins: 0
• Playoff Points: 3
• Margin above cutoff: +58 points
• Performance at Darlington: Truex has a solid history at Darlington with 24 races, including two wins, 10 top 10s, and an average finish of 13.9.
• Odds: Truex is in a fairly secure position to advance via points, even if there is a new winner. He would only need 19 points to secure his spot if a surprise winner emerges.

Ty Gibbs (#15 in standings)

• Points: 676
• Wins: 0
• Playoff Points: 2
• Margin above cutoff: +39 points
• Performance at Darlington: Gibbs has four starts at Darlington with one top 5 and an average finish of 13.5.
• Odds: Gibbs could secure his spot with 16 points, as long as there is no unexpected new winner. If someone outside the top 16 wins, he would need 38 points to maintain his position.

Chris Buescher (#16 in standings)

• Points: 658
• Wins: 0
• Playoff Points: 2
• Margin above cutoff: +21 points
• Performance at Darlington: Buescher has competed 14 times at Darlington, with one top 5, four top 10s, and an average finish of 17.4.
• Odds: Buescher is in a more precarious position. He needs at least 34 points to secure his spot if there is no new winner. If another winless driver wins, he might need help to secure his playoff spot.

Bubba Wallace (#17 in standings)

• Points: 637
• Wins: 0
• Playoff Points: 1
• Margin below cutoff: -21 points
• Performance at Darlington: Wallace has competed 12 times at Darlington, with one top 5, four top 10s, and an average finish of 18.5.
• Odds: Wallace cannot rely solely on points; he will need significant help to qualify on points unless other drivers encounter issues. Winning would be his best option to secure a playoff spot.

Ross Chastain (#18 in standings)

• Points: 631
• Wins: 0
• Playoff Points: 1
• Margin below cutoff: -27 points
• Performance at Darlington: Chastain has had 10 starts at Darlington, with two top 5s and an average finish of 19.8.
• Odds: Like Wallace, Chastain would need help or a win to advance. His performance at Darlington has not been strong, so the odds of advancing without a win are low.

What's at Stake

This weekend is not just about securing a playoff spot. Drivers are also competing for the regular-season championship, with Tyler Reddick currently leading the standings, followed by Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson. A strong result at Darlington could give them a crucial advantage heading into the postseason.

Recent history has shown that Darlington can be unpredictable, and with so much at stake, the race promises to be an intense battle on all fronts. Every driver on the bubble knows that any mistake could cost them their playoff spot, making this race an unmissable event.